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White Paper

Improved mortality rate forecasting using machine learning and open data

23 November 2022

Longevity is a major factor in the profitability of life insurers throughout the world. Mortality forecasts could therefore have a substantial impact on their financial results. In this paper, we investigate using open data and advanced modelling approaches to improve mortality forecasts. We illustrate the performance of the method on mortality for France and the Netherlands. We trained a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model on multi-population, age-specific, mortality data—enriched with socio-economic data collected by the World Bank. Our discussion includes: 

  • The TFT model
  • Data used: The Human Mortality Database
  • Our model: training, interpretation and evaluation

Jan Thiemen Postema

Amsterdam Insurance and Financial Risk | Tel: 31686855107

Raymond van Es

Amsterdam Insurance and Financial Risk | Tel: 31 6 1133 4000

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